Intro to Passing Score metric

Armed with a collection of powerful AI-driven tools, it is only fitting we put the pieces together to form the seven measurable components that make up our new passing score (listed in order of weight in the formula):

(I) Expected Points Added Over Expected (EPAOE) accounts for 46 percent of the passing score. EPAOE measures production relative to an expected value (using our new expected yards model) and is calculated as the difference between the actual value of a pass and the predicted value of the pass before the ball is thrown, when accounting for the probability of each pass outcome (e.g., completion, incompletion or interception).

(II) Expected Points Added (EPA) accounts for 18 percent of the passing score. Instead of quantifying the success of a play in terms of yards gained, EPA represents success in terms of points added relative to the current play.

(III) Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) accounts for 11 percent of the passing score. CPOE is a derivative of completion probability, which measures the success of a pass relative to the difficulty of the throw. The CPOE feature used in the score does adjust for dropped passes.

(IV) Interception Probability (INT Probability) accounts for 11 percent of the passing score. INT Probability measures the likelihood that a pass will be intercepted if thrown.

(V) Air Expected Points Added (Air EPA) accounts for 7 percent of the passing score. Air EPA is equal to the value of a completion plus the yards a receiver would be expected to gain after the catch. Air EPA is a proxy for the optimal reward of a pass within the control of the quarterback.

(VI) Expected Air EPA (xAir EPA) accounts for 7 percent of the passing score. xAir EPA is equal to the value of a completion (plus expected YAC), relative to the likelihood of a completion (e.g., completion probability).

(VII) Win Probability (WP) is not a feature in the model, but it is used as an aggregation play-weight. On any given play, the offense's pre-snap win probability for is used as a weight in the passing score formula, where closer to 50 percent win probability equals one and closer to 10 percent or 90 percent equals 0.6.